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2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Mary Peltola72¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 30, 2026

  • Mary Peltola46.6%

The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Quantus Insights2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30758 LVDan Sullivan 47.8% · Mary Peltola 47.2%
co/efficient2026-09-14 – 2026-09-17799 LVDan Sullivan 49% · Mary Peltola 46%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · for AARP2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 LVMary Peltola 53% · Dan Sullivan 47%
Alaska Survey Research2026-08-20 – 2026-08-231495 LVMary Peltola 50.6% · Dan Sullivan 49.4%
Alaska Survey Research2026-08-02 – 2026-08-051371 LVMary Peltola 50.8% · Dan Sullivan 49.2%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 – 2026-06-29593 LVDan Sullivan 47% · Mary Peltola 45%
Alaska Survey Research2026-06-04 – 2026-06-071393 LVMary Peltola 49.4% · Dan Sullivan 44.2% · Gerald Heikes 3.7% · Dustin Darden 2.7%
Alaska Survey Research2026-05-14 – 2026-05-171401 LVMary Peltola 48.4% · Dan Sullivan 43.8% · Dustin Darden 5.1% · Gerald Heikes 2.7%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-191946 LVMary Peltola 52% · Dan Sullivan 48%
Alaska Survey Research2026-04-16 – 2026-04-19— LVMary Peltola 50.8% · Dan Sullivan 47.3%
Alaska Survey Research2026-03-19 – 2026-03-221283 LVMary Peltola 52.4% · Dan Sullivan 47.6%
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee2026-01-16 – 2026-01-17611 RVMary Peltola 49% · Dan Sullivan 47%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Mary Peltola 3Dan S. Sullivan 1· 4 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (5)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.