Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Peggy Flanagan91¢
  • Michele Tafoya10¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 30, 2026

  • Peggy Flanagan44.0%
  • Michele Tafoya43.0%
  • Rebecca Whiting3.5%
  • Marisa Simonetti2.0%

Peggy Flanagan by 1.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 8 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Big Data Poll · for Public Polling Project2026-09-29 – 2026-09-30622 LVPeggy Flanagan 46% · Michele Tafoya 44% · Rebecca Whiting 5%
SurveyUSA · for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)2026-09-09 – 2026-09-14654 LVPeggy Flanagan 42% · Michele Tafoya 42% · Rebecca Whiting 2% · Marisa Simonetti 2%
Quantus Insights2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10720 LVPeggy Flanagan 48.2% · Michele Tafoya 44.4%
SurveyUSA · for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)2026-08-13 – 2026-08-17661 LVPeggy Flanagan 46% · Michele Tafoya 41% · Rebecca Whiting 1% · Marisa Simonetti 1%
Emerson College2026-02-06 – 2026-02-081000 LVAngie Craig 46.6% · Michele Tafoya 40.2%
Emerson College2026-02-06 – 2026-02-081000 LVPeggy Flanagan 47.1% · Michele Tafoya 40.6%
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for GQR2025-09-15 – 2025-09-161015 LVPeggy Flanagan 46% · Rep 44%
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for GQR2025-09-15 – 2025-09-161015 LVAngie Craig 47% · Rep 43%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Peggy Flanagan 3· 3 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.