Dan Patrick#80 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 23, 2025
Dan Patrick named their top four teams in the NFC in order (Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles), said they still have the Lions winning the Super Bowl while naming Kansas City as their AFC favorite, floated Tampa Bay reaching 12-13 wins and home-field advantage, and expects Notre Dame to run the table.
Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Dan Patrick said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.
- Where it was said
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 1 – Ray Lewis Is not Walking Through That Door, NFL Power Rankings
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 23, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“who would you be your favorites of the NFC and AFC... Well, I'm not going to change... I still believe in Kansas City proof of concept and I believe in the Lions as well.”
- 2Power Rankings“I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the Rams are in that top five in the NFC... I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
- 3Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl“Now I have the Lions winning the super Bowl, but after I what Green Bay did to them.”
- 4Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins“Tampa Bay could put up twelve wins, thirteen wins now all of a sudden they got home field advantage.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| “I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the…”2 | Power Rankings | — | 10 | 10 | 0 | |
| Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl3 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins4 | Season Win Totals | 8 | 20 | 75 | −100.65 | |
| 4 calls · 4 misses · all settled | 7.5 | 21.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 7.5 out of 100, against 21.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked KC0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.83difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
“I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the Rams are in that top five in the NFC... I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
VerdictMiss10Miss · naive 1010this call−10a naive guess=0better than naive×1.83difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 10
- baseline:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
3Super Bowl PicksDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked DET0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.83difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
4Season Win TotalsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins
What happened8called 1220Miss · naive 7520this call−75a naive guess=−55worse than naive×1.83difficulty=−100.65skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −100.65
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
7.5naive 21.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.