Dan Patrick· Sep 23, 2025
Dan Patrick named his top four teams in the NFC in order (Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles), said he still has the Lions winning the Super Bowl while naming Kansas City as his AFC favorite, floated Tampa Bay reaching 12-13 wins and home-field advantage, and expects Notre Dame to run the table.
“I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 7.5 out of 100, against 21.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsSep 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“who would you be your favorites of the NFC and AFC... Well, I'm not going to change... I still believe in Kansas City proof of concept and I believe in the Lions as well.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Power RankingsSep 23, 2025
“I would put three teams in there. I mean, I still think the Rams are in that top five in the NFC... I would say Lions, Packers, Rams, Eagles. That'd be my top my top four.”
Miss · 10Scored 10a naive guess scored 10+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 10
- baseline:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Super Bowl PicksDetroit LionsSep 23, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl
“Now I have the Lions winning the super Bowl, but after I what Green Bay did to them.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 12 wins
“Tampa Bay could put up twelve wins, thirteen wins now all of a sudden they got home field advantage.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 75-100.65 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -100.65
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
What others said about the same people
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 36Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.