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Adam RayAug 28, 2025

Comedian Adam Ray predicted the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Mariners reach the World Series, and Cal Raleigh hits 70 home runs and wins AL MVP.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
SEA won itWhat happenedpicked SEA
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+200Skillafter difficulty

What Adam Ray said

Seahawks win the Super Bowl. Mariners go to the World Series.
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
The episode
NFC West Predictions
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidAug 28, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Super Bowl PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl

    What happenedSEA won itpicked SEA
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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