Erick-Woods Erickson· Nov 5, 2024

He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.

“At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.”

published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 91.7 out of 100, against 63.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 5, 2024
“I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 90-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
-15
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
in their words:
225 or 230
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
75
baseline:
90
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
their range:
225,230
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 5, 2024
“The GOP presently has a narrow 220 to 212 margin. I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 5, 2024
“At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 5, 2024
“At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.