2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania

Senate · November 5, 2024 · certified

The ballot

The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.

Dave McCormick (Republican)Won48.8%
Robert P. Casey Jr. (Democratic, incumbent)48.6%
John C. Thomas (Libertarian)1.2%
Leila Hazou (Green)1.0%
Marty Selker (Constitution)0.3%

Dave McCormick by 0.2 points in the general · held by the Democratic party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2024-senate

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 27Nov 3Nov 10

Dave McCormick 6Robert P. Casey Jr. 3· 9 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Dave McCormick8 picks · won
Robert P. Casey Jr.3 picks · lost

Every claim about this race (11)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.

Ben Shapiro: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Erick-Woods Erickson: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Newt Gingrich: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “Leans Democratic”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Miss · 0
Logan Phillips: Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “it's eighty percent for the Senate”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Miss · 0
Ben Shapiro: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Nathan Gonzales: Robert P. Casey Jr. wins PA Senate (2024) — “tilt Democratic”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Miss · 0
Steve Deace: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Steve Deace Show: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 29, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100
Sean Spicer: Dave McCormick wins PA Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania · the take
Hit · 100