Mike Fanelli· Aug 15, 2026
Fanelli names six players as overpriced busts to avoid at their NFFC redraft ADPs: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, TreVeyon Henderson, Keaton Mitchell, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid. He also expects Omarion Hampton to be the Chargers' featured back.
“Let's look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.”
published in writing · FantasyPros · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 5 fantasy bust calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Where this call stands in the room
Omarion Hampton · 2026 season5 calls from 4 pundits between 1 and 1. Mike Fanelli said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)
“Justin Jefferson (MIN) – ADP 11.94 | WR6 ... fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver or a first-round pick.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsTrevor LawrenceAug 15, 2026
Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)
“Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – ADP 89.11 | QB8 ... There is no reason why Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott should get drafted after him.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
“Omarion Hampton will be the featured guy, with Kimani Vidal and Mitchell mixing in.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsAug 15, 2026
Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)
“Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 83.09 | QB5 ... he is overpriced at his current ADP.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)
“Keaton Mitchell (LAC) – ADP 135.16 | RB43 ... Therefore, Mitchell is vastly overvalued at his current ADP.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Fantasy Bust CallsDalton KincaidBuffalo BillsAug 15, 2026
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)
“Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – ADP 118.51 | TE10 ... Kincaid no longer has a realistic shot at being first or second on his team in targets, which is necessary to justify his ADP”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Derek BrownFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Chris WelshFantasy Bust Calls · Austin EkelerHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy Bust Calls · Rashee RiceMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Pat FitzmauriceFantasy Bust Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Derek BrownFantasy Bust Calls · Chuba HubbardHit · 100Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as his ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City.