Mike FanelliAug 15, 2026
Fanelli names six players as overpriced busts to avoid at their NFFC redraft ADPs: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, TreVeyon Henderson, Keaton Mitchell, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid. They also expect Omarion Hampton to be the Chargers' featured back.
Published in writing · FantasyProsRead the original
What Mike Fanelli said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromLet's look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.
- Where it was published
- FantasyPros
- The piece
- 6 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on NFFC (2026)
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- 1Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)“Trevor Lawrence (JAC) – ADP 89.11 | QB8 ... There is no reason why Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott should get drafted after him.”
- 2Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)“Justin Jefferson (MIN) – ADP 11.94 | WR6 ... fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver or a first-round pick.”
- 3Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart“Omarion Hampton will be the featured guy, with Kimani Vidal and Mitchell mixing in.”
- 4Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)“Keaton Mitchell (LAC) – ADP 135.16 | RB43 ... Therefore, Mitchell is vastly overvalued at his current ADP.”
- 5Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)“Caleb Williams (CHI) – ADP 83.09 | QB5 ... he is overpriced at his current ADP.”
- 6Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)“Dalton Kincaid (BUF) – ADP 118.51 | TE10 ... Kincaid no longer has a realistic shot at being first or second on his team in targets, which is necessary to justify his ADP”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)4 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)5 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)6 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 6 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
6 checkable claims — 5 fantasy bust calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Omarion Hampton · 2026 season6 calls from 3 pundits between 1 and 1. Mike Fanelli said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Fantasy Bust CallsTrevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Fantasy Bust CallsJustin JeffersonMinnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Depth Chart CallsOmarion HamptonLos Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Fantasy Bust CallsKeaton MitchellLos Angeles Chargers
Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Fantasy Bust CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears
Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Fantasy Bust CallsDalton KincaidBuffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.