Pete Prisco· Oct 7, 2026
Prisco picks every Week 5 game with a final score, including a Cowboys blowout of Tampa Bay on Thursday night, a Packers upset of the Bears, a Jaguars win over a banged-up Eagles team in London, and a Rams shootout win over Buffalo on Monday night.
“The Packers win it in an upset.”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 15 have settled, averaging 67.1 out of 100, against 45.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Buccaneers at Cowboys 28 calls
- Eagles at Jaguars 33 calls
- Giants at Commanders 17 calls
- Texans at Titans 25 calls
- Colts at Steelers 21 calls
- Browns at Jets 19 calls
- Bears at Packers 49 calls
- Vikings at Saints 27 calls
- Raiders at Patriots 28 calls
- Bengals at Dolphins 16 calls
- Broncos at Chargers 34 calls
- 49ers at Seahawks 60 calls
- Lions at Cardinals 24 calls
- Ravens at Falcons 21 calls
- Bills at Rams 41 calls
15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsOct 7, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 34 — Bills 33
“Pick: Rams 34, Bills 33”
Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 43.52+3.06 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 37-34
- skill:
- 3.06
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 45.24
- baseline:
- 43.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.28
- predicted margin:
- 1
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 34–33 calls a closer game (Rams by 1) and more points (67).
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 7, 2026
Detroit Lions 40 — Cardinals 31
“Pick: Lions 40, Cardinals 31”
Close · 64Scored 64.29a naive guess scored 0+114.43 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 45-21
- skill:
- 114.43
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 64.29
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 9
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 40–31 calls a bigger Lions win (by 9) and more points (71).
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles ChargersOct 7, 2026
Los Angeles Chargers 23 — Broncos 17
“Pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 17”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 36.48+24.07 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-17
- skill:
- 24.07
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 36.48
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 23–17 calls a Chargers win (by 6; the line gave the Chargers 37%) and fewer points (40).
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensOct 7, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 24 — Falcons 17
“Pick: Ravens 24, Falcons 17”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 34.1+117.31 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-23
- skill:
- 117.31
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 34.1
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 24–17 calls a Ravens win (by 7; the line gave the Ravens 39%) and fewer points (41).
- Score PredictionsSeattle SeahawksOct 7, 2026
Seattle Seahawks 28 — 49ers 21
“Pick: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21”
Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 43.62-5.6 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 32-29
- skill:
- −5.6
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 40.48
- baseline:
- 43.62
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 28–21 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 7) and more points (49).
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsOct 7, 2026
New England Patriots 28 — Raiders 24
“Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 24”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-45
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 4
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 28–24 calls a bigger Patriots win (by 4) and more points (52).
- Score PredictionsMinnesota VikingsOct 7, 2026
Minnesota Vikings 24 — Saints 17
“Pick: Vikings 24, Saints 17”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 28.28+114.94 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-13
- skill:
- 114.94
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 28.28
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 7) and fewer points (41).
- Score PredictionsNew York GiantsOct 7, 2026
New York Giants 26 — Commanders 24
“Pick: Giants 26, Commanders 24”
Close · 70Scored 70.24a naive guess scored 72.91-4.75 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-27
- skill:
- −4.75
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 70.24
- baseline:
- 72.91
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 2
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 26–24 calls a Giants win (by 2; the line gave the Giants 38%) and more points (50).
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansOct 7, 2026
Houston Texans 23 — Titans 17
“Pick: Texans 23, Titans 17”
Close · 60Scored 59.52a naive guess scored 0+105.95 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-3
- skill:
- 105.95
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 59.52
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 23–17 calls a closer game (Texans by 6) and more points (40).
- Score PredictionsNew York JetsOct 7, 2026
New York Jets 20 — Browns 16
“Pick: Jets 20, Browns 16”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 90.19+13.23 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 12-17
- skill:
- 13.23
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 90.19
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 4
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 20–16 calls a bigger Jets win (by 4) and fewer points (36).
- Score PredictionsGreen Bay PackersOct 7, 2026
Green Bay Packers 27 — Bears 24
“The Packers win it in an upset. Pick: Packers 27, Bears 24”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 7-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 27–24 calls a Packers win (by 3; the line gave the Packers 47%) and more points (51).
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsOct 7, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 23 — Dolphins 13
“Pick: Bengals 23, Dolphins 13”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 35.42+102.23 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 31-24
- skill:
- 102.23
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 35.42
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 10
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 23–13 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 10) and fewer points (36).
- Score PredictionsPittsburgh SteelersOct 7, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 33 — Colts 23
“Pick: Steelers 33, Colts 23”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 73.52+38.66 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-34
- skill:
- 38.66
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 95.24
- baseline:
- 73.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 10
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 33–23 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 10) and more points (56).
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 7, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 — Eagles 16
“Pick: Jaguars 28, Eagles 16”
Close · 76Scored 76.19a naive guess scored 96.54-36.22 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- −36.22
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 76.19
- baseline:
- 96.54
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.55
- predicted margin:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 28–16 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 12) and more points (44).
- Score PredictionsDallas CowboysOct 7, 2026
Dallas Cowboys 34 — Bucs 14
“Pick: Cowboys 34, Bucs 14”
Miss · 21Scored 21.43a naive guess scored 32.2-19.17 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 24-16
- skill:
- −19.17
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 21.43
- baseline:
- 32.2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.52
- predicted margin:
- 20
Closing line (Oct 8): Cowboys by 9.5, total 49.5 · this 34–14 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 20) and fewer points (48).
What others said about the same people
- Jack MarkowskiRoster Spot Calls · Brandon SmithMiss · 0Markowski argues the Steelers should move on from Tyreek Hill given his injury and possible NFL discipline, and names promoting practice-squad receiver Brandon Smith to the 53-man roster as the most obvious way Pittsburgh addresses its receiver need.
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · Jordan AddisonMiss · 0Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense.
- Anthony "Tone Digz" DiGuilioGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night because of their defense.
- Darius ButlerGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Said Brian Flores could be Coach of the Year for what he is doing with the Vikings defense, and picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night with Stafford outplaying Josh Allen.
- Pat McAfeeGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills in the Monday night game at SoFi Stadium.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani picked the Bills to beat the Rams 30-27 on Monday night.
- Gennaro FiliceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 95Filice picked every Week 5 game with scores, backing Cincinnati in a closer-than-expected game at Miami, the Patriots in a low-scoring home win, Houston to finally get off the schneid in Tennessee, and upsets by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Bills.
- Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 90Kownack picked all Week 5 games with scores, including the Browns winning at the Jets to reach 4-1, the Broncos handling the Chargers, and the Giants upsetting Washington.
- Pat FitzmauriceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Fitzmaurice predicted a 34-31 Bills win over the Rams, suggested the Packers would again blow a lead to the Bears, and said Drake Maye is a high-end to mid-range QB1 going forward.
- Derek BrownScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brown picked the Browns to beat the Jets and the Bears to beat the Packers, forecast a 31-28 Bills win over the Rams on Monday night, and made several Week 5 availability calls — doubting Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin while expecting Ja'Marr Chase to play.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani lays out projected final scores for every Week 5 game he covers, including Jacksonville handling Philadelphia, Pittsburgh bouncing back at home against Indianapolis, and Cleveland winning outright in New York.