Matt Verderame#83 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 4, 2026
They picked the Bills to defeat the Patriots in Week 4.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Matt Verderame said
Pick: Bills
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- NFL Prediction Panel Likes Bills' Chances to Deliver Crushing Blow vs. Patriots
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 4
- PlayedOct 4
- GradedOct 5
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
What happenedPatriots 29–26Patriots at Bills0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.83difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (74%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 29-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
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