Skip to main content

Chris BumbacaOct 24, 2026

Predicts a 24-17 Jets win over Miami.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

40Close · out of 100
Dolphins 28–25What happenedcalled Jets by 7 · lost by 3
42.18A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
40.48This callout of 100
−2.85Skillafter difficulty

What Chris Bumbaca said

Our reading: New York Jets 24 — Dolphins 17

Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Dolphins-Jets Week 7 National Predictions Roundup: Any More Miami Believers?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 24
  2. PlayedOct 25
  3. GradedOct 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 40.5 out of 100, against 42.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew York Jets

    New York Jets 24 — Dolphins 17

    What happenedDolphins 28–25called Jets by 7 · lost by 3
    40.48Close · naive 42.18
    40.48this call42.18a naive guess−1.7worse than naive1.67difficulty−2.85skill

    Closing line (Oct 25): Jets by 3.5, total 39.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Jets win (by 7) and more points (41).

    How this was scored
    score:
    28-25
    skill:
    −2.85
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    42.18
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    7
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Others on the same people

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.