Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Tim Miller· Nov 4, 2024

Miller argued that the Iowa polling trend pointed strongly toward Wisconsin staying in Harris's column, saying Selzer would have to be far off for Harris to lose the state.

“Seltzer would have to be way off for Wisconsin to be wrong, to be, you know, out of Harris's column.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily) · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Race WinnersNov 4, 2024

    “that augers almost certainly well for Wisconsin. I I mean, Seltzer would have to be way off for Wisconsin to be wrong, to be, you know, out of Harris's column.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2024-president-wi
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Donald Trump
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kamala Harris
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic

    Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.