2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana

Senate · November 5, 2024 · certified

The ballot

The deciding round's shares, from the certified result.

Tim Sheehy (Republican)Won52.6%
Jon Tester (Democratic, incumbent)45.5%
Sid Daoud (Libertarian)1.2%
Robert Barb (Green)—

Tim Sheehy by 7.1 points in the general · held by the Democratic party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2024-senate

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 27Nov 3Nov 10

Tim Sheehy 10· 10 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Tim Sheehy12 picks · won

Every claim about this race (12)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.

Erick-Woods Erickson: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 6, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Carl Cannon: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 5, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Lakshya Jain: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “Leans Republican”
Race Winners · Nov 4, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 2, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Daniel Horowitz: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
David Beard: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “it's not impossible, but I think nobody should be expecting it”
Race Winners · Nov 1, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Tim Miller: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 28, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Ben Shapiro: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “extremely optimistic about not just this race”
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Bill Scher: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 25, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Megyn Kelly: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Daniel Horowitz: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024)
Race Winners · Oct 23, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100
Domenico Montanaro: Tim Sheehy wins MT Senate (2024) — “favored to win”
Race Winners · Oct 22, 2024 · 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana · the take
Hit · 100