Dan Graziano#22 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 25, 2026

Graziano expects Kyler Murray to be released by the Cardinals by the third day of the league year if no trade materializes, believes the Colts will keep Daniel Jones (via a tag if necessary), thinks Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh is a strong possibility, and expects Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson to part ways.

Said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 1calls landed1 hit · 3 waiting

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1 of 4Settled3 still waiting

#22Dan Graziano’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Dan Graziano said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

But if they can't, I think the odds are that he gets released by that third day of the league year.

Dan Graziano, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: NFL Live (podcast)
The episode: Defensive Lineman at the Combine
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidFeb 25
GradedNov 10

1Trey Hendrickson to move“So I I think in the end, it's likely that they part ways”
2Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers“So it sounds like Aaron Rogers going back there is a strong possibility.”
3Daniel Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts“The Colts believe they'll have Daniel Jones back whether it's on a long term deal or whether they use a transition tag or a franchise tag to hold him in place... I would anticipate the Colts... would use one of the tags to hold him in place”
4Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals“But if they can't, I think the odds are that he gets released by that third day of the league year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Trey Hendrickson to move¹	Trade and Signing Calls	—	100	0	+200
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers²	Trade and Signing Calls	—	—	—	—
Daniel Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts³	Trade and Signing Calls	—	—	—	—
Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals⁴	Trade and Signing Calls	—	—	—	—
4 calls · 1 hit · 3 waiting			100	0

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Trade and Signing Calls Trey Hendrickson
Trey Hendrickson to move
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
player:
Trey Hendrickson
season:
2026
claimed:
he leaves
was with:
CIN
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
reported:
signed → BAL
settled by:
a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he stays where he is
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Trade and Signing Calls Aaron Rodgers Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
3Trade and Signing Calls Daniel Jones Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
4Trade and Signing Calls Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
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Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
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