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Andrew Erickson#30 of 87 NFL pundits · May 31, 2025

Erickson is targeting Chase Brown, Javonte Williams, Trey Benson, Ray Davis, MarShawn Lloyd, Will Shipley, Braelon Allen and Rishard Smith while fading Tyrone Tracy, Tank Bigsby and Kyren Williams, and they expect James Cook's touchdown total to settle in the eight-to-ten range.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled
41.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
68A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 4Settlednone still waiting
#30Andrew Erickson’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Andrew Erickson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So yeah, Chase Brown for me, is someone I want to highlight and someone that I'm going to be drafting a lot of.
Andrew Erickson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode
FantasyPros - Will Saquon Barkley Bust? | The Top 50 Running Backs for the 2025 Season (Ep. 1580)
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidMay 31, 2025
  2. GradedAug 19–Oct 7, 2026
  1. 1James Cook to record 8–10 rushing tds“So I think we'll probably be around those low like eight to ten touchdowns, assuming that he stole the RB one”
  2. 2Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)“if we're trying to figure out who could be this year's JK. Dobbins, I think Javonte Williams checks off a lot of boxes... consider me in at RB thirty seven”
  3. 3Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (fifth round)“My Lock. In every single fifth round, Richard Smith is my RB fifty”
  4. 4Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)“So I think Braylen Allen's kind of interesting and just another guy I mentioned”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
James Cook to record 8–10 rushing tds1Player Season Numbers1266.6771.95−10.57
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)2Sleeper Calls—1000+200
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (fifth round)3Sleeper Calls—0100−200
Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)4Sleeper Calls—0100−200
4 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled41.768

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 41.7 out of 100, against 68 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

rushing tds
8–10They said
12What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Player Season NumbersJames CookBuffalo Bills

    James Cook to record 8–10 rushing tds

    What happened12called 8–10
    66.67Close · naive 71.95
    66.67this call71.95a naive guess−5.28worse than naive2difficulty−10.57skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    10.32
    skill:
    −10.57
    what happened:
    12
    player:
    James Cook
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    71.95
    they said:
    8–10
    statistic:
    rushing_tds
    difficulty:
    2
    last season:
    16
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    position average:
    4.63
    zero at percent out:
    50
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas Cowboys

    Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    RB thirty seven
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Javonte Williams
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB32
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB11
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Sleeper CallsBrashard SmithKansas City Chiefs

    Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (fifth round)

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    fifth round
    naive:
    the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Brashard Smith
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    cost round:
    5
    had to beat:
    RB20
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB70
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the cost the source quoted — fifth round
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Sleeper CallsBraelon AllenNew York Jets

    Braelon Allen to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
    How this was scored
    call:
    sleeper
    cost:
    outside the top fifty
    naive:
    he repeats last season
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Braelon Allen
    season:
    2025
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    RB
    had to beat:
    RB51
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual finish:
    RB94
    weeks left when called:
    18
    measured against:
    the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    41.7naive 68

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