Nick Shook#67 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

Shook makes three ATS picks — Steelers -3.5 over Atlanta, Jaguars -8.5 over Cleveland, Cowboys -2.5 at the Giants — plus a fourth stashed pick on Houston. He gives score predictions of Jaguars 30-9 and Cowboys by 15, and says the Steelers win by 7-10.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 4calls landed2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting

48.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

62.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#67Nick Shook’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Shook said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

My first winner is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers facing, looking at minus three and a half over the Atlanta Falcons.

Nick Shook, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: 2026 Week 1 Picks with Nick Shook
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 11
PlayedSep 13
GradedSep 15

1Dallas Cowboys to beat New York Giants“I'm going Cowboys minus two and a half over the Giants... I picked them to win by 15”
2Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Cleveland Browns 9“It's Jaguars minus eight and a half over the Browns... 30-9, that's what I went with.”
3Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons“my first winner is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers facing, looking at minus three and a half over the Atlanta Falcons... I think it's Probably a 7 to 10 point victory in this game.”
4Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills“that was the fourth pick I had stashed away was Texans one and a half... I very much feel confident in the Texans winning this game at home to start the season.”
5Cleveland Browns to finish with 4 wins“But I think I had the Browns maybe four and 13.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Dallas Cowboys to beat New York Giants¹	Game Outcome Picks	Giants 28–20	0	100	−200
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Cleveland Browns 9²	Score Predictions	Jaguars 34–10	92.86	50	+85.71
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons³	Game Outcome Picks	Steelers 20–13	100	100	0
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills⁴	Game Outcome Picks	Bills 36–31	0	0	0
Cleveland Browns to finish with 4 wins⁵	Season Win Totals	—	—	—	—
5 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting			48.2	62.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 score prediction and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 48.2 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Cleveland Browns · 2026 season · wins

Nick Shook — 4 winsthe room — 8 calls from 4 punditsmedian 6 wins

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

1Game Outcome Picks Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat New York Giants
What happenedGiants 28–20Cowboys at Giants
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
NYG
score:
20-28
skill:
−200
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NYG
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Cleveland Browns 9
What happenedJaguars 34–10called Jaguars by 21 · won by 24
92.86Hit · naive 50
92.86this call50a naive guess42.86better than naive2difficulty+85.71skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Jaguars by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 30–9 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 21) and fewer points (39). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
10-34
skill:
85.71
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
50
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
18
naive home margin:
−0.53
predicted margin:
21
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons
What happenedSteelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
13-20
skill:
0
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks Houston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Buffalo Bills
What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
36-31
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Season Win Totals Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to finish with 4 wins
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
48.2naive 62.5

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Bryan DeArdo · Trade and Signing Calls · Joey Porter Jr. · Miss 0
The piece predicts Joey Porter Jr. most likely stays with the Steelers through 2026, while listing possible trade destinations if they were moved.
Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Myles Garrett · Hit 100
Discussing Myles Garrett's trade request, Eisen said they expect Garrett to get their way and be moved out of Cleveland rather than stay, which is why staying would be shocking.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Close 55
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
Jared Koch · Game Outcome Picks · Houston Texans · Hit 100
Koch predicts the Texans will beat the winless Chargers on the road in Week 9 by at least 10 points, with Houston's defense forcing a couple of turnovers to set up a multiple-score win.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.