Bill Simmons· Oct 2, 2026

Looking at Cleveland's remaining schedule he sees roughly nine wins in there, pegs Pittsburgh for an 8-9 or 9-8 type season, and expects New England to lose to Buffalo in Week 4.

“I think they're supposed to lose this game, and I think they will.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 season win totals and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.

Where this call stands in the room

Cleveland Browns · 2026 season · wins

Bill Simmons — 9 winsthe room — 11 calls from 6 punditsmedian 6 wins

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The game in this take

Patriots at Bills 36 calls

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Game Outcome Picks Buffalo BillsOct 2, 2026
Buffalo Bills to beat Patriots
“I don't think they're gonna be able to match points with Buffalo... I think they're supposed to lose this game, and I think they will... I think they're gonna lose this weekend.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
29-26
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Closing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (74%).
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Pittsburgh SteelersOct 2, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with ? wins
“They're fine. They're gonna be in that eight, nine, nine, and eight, somewhere around there too.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Cleveland BrownsOct 2, 2026
Cleveland Browns to finish with 9 wins
“They have Texans, Raiders, Bengals, Falcons at home... There there might be, like, nine wins in there.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Doug JoubertScore Predictions · Cleveland BrownsMiss · 26
Joubert picks the Browns to win 28-17, saying the Saints haven't improved over the first half of the season despite Cleveland starting Shedeur Sanders.
Pat McAfeeGame Outcome Picks · Cleveland BrownsMiss · 0
McAfee picked the Browns, with Shedeur Sanders starting, to beat the Saints in New Orleans.
Michael MooreDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersHit · 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. He also expects Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.
Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersHit · 100
Pereles writes that if Deshaun Watson can't clear concussion protocol in time, the Browns would likely turn to second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders to start Week 9 against the Saints.
Mitchell EisensteinGame Outcome Picks · Cleveland BrownsMiss · 0
Mitchell gave his Week 9 top-five power rankings, keeping Buffalo first and the 49ers second while elevating the Bears, Jaguars and Lions, and picked a slate of Week 9 games including a Packers win in New England, a Panthers upset of Denver, and blowouts for Detroit, Kansas City and Houston. He also tabbed Jonah Coleman as a late-season Offensive Rookie of the Year pick.
Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Cleveland BrownsMiss · 0
Sherman ranked the 49ers first in his Week 9 top five ahead of Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville and Denver, picked every Week 9 game with scores, and gave midseason award picks headlined by Brock Purdy for MVP and Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year.

More season win totals

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Chicago BearsHit · 100
Nick Wright lays out his season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.
Damonza ByrdSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100
Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as his favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.
Gregg RosenthalSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100
Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; he also likes the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.
Gregg RosenthalSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysMiss · 0
Rosenthal expects a high-scoring Eagles-Cowboys kickoff game, guesses a scoreline around 41-27, still believes Dallas can clear its win total and reach the playoffs, likes the Giants to beat expectations with Jackson Dart taking over as starter early.
Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0
Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. He also makes a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond.
Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100
In part two of his gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.