Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 17, 2025

Cowherd's "Blazing Five" NFL picks plus a college pick and additional games: Browns, Broncos, Cowboys-Commanders over, Packers, Lions, Notre Dame, plus Bears and 49ers picks.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 7calls landed4 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled

60.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

59.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

#54Colin Cowherd’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Colin Cowherd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I trust Cleveland's defense to carry the day, maybe get a turnover in points twenty four to seventeen. Browns win and cover.

Colin Cowherd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: THE HERD - Hour 2 - New Blazin' 5 picks for the weekend, helping the growth of Caleb Williams, Joe Flacco recent success, Dave Wannstedt
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidOct 17, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1Washington Commanders 30 — Cowboys 27“I'm taking the over. Commanders win. That's not my play. Thirty twenty seven.”
2Baker Mayfield to win MVP“I would vote him today... he would be MVP and then Mahomes would be runner up.”
3Green Bay Packers 28 — Arizona 24“I'm going to take green Bay to win close. Seven points is too many. Twenty eight to twenty four.”
4Detroit Lions 28 — Buccaneers 21“Bucks Lions win it. Lions cover twenty eight to twenty one.”
5Denver Broncos 28 — Giants 20“I'm gonna take Denver to win twenty eight to twenty. Cover the spread.”
6Cleveland Browns 24 — Dolphins 17“I trust Cleveland's defense to carry the day, maybe get a turnover in points twenty four to seventeen. Browns win and cover.”
7San Francisco 49ers to beat Atlanta“if San Francisco can bring it back a couple of weapons, I like San Francisco.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Washington Commanders 30 — Cowboys 27¹	Score Predictions	—	4.76	52.45	−79.64
Baker Mayfield to win MVP²	Award Picks	Matthew Stafford won	0	0	0
Green Bay Packers 28 — Arizona 24³	Score Predictions	—	100	45.3	+91.34
Detroit Lions 28 — Buccaneers 21⁴	Score Predictions	—	80.95	69.11	+19.77
Denver Broncos 28 — Giants 20⁵	Score Predictions	—	83.33	97.55	−23.75
Cleveland Browns 24 — Dolphins 17⁶	Score Predictions	—	57.14	50	+11.93
San Francisco 49ers to beat Atlanta⁷	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
7 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled			60.9	59.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 5 score predictions, 1 award pick and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 60.9 out of 100, against 59.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Score Predictions Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders 30 — Cowboys 27
VerdictMiss
4.76Miss · naive 52.45
4.76this call52.45a naive guess−47.69worse than naive1.67difficulty−79.64skill
Closing line (Oct 19): Cowboys by 1.5, total 54.5 · this 30–27 calls a Commanders win (by 3; the line gave the Commanders 47%) and more points (57).
How this was scored
score:
22-44
skill:
−79.64
they picked:
WAS
season:
2025
accuracy:
4.76
baseline:
52.45
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
22
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Award Picks Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Baker Mayfield
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.67difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Baker Mayfield
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
12
Think this is wrong?
3Score Predictions Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers 28 — Arizona 24
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 45.3
100this call45.3a naive guess54.7better than naive1.67difficulty+91.34skill
Closing line (Oct 19): Packers by 7, total 44.5 · this 28–24 calls a closer game (Packers by 4) and more points (52).
How this was scored
score:
27-23
skill:
91.34
they picked:
GB
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
45.3
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
4Score Predictions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions 28 — Buccaneers 21
VerdictHit
80.95Hit · naive 69.11
80.95this call69.11a naive guess11.84better than naive1.67difficulty+19.77skill
Closing line (Oct 20): Lions by 6, total 54.5 · this 28–21 calls a bigger Lions win (by 7) and fewer points (49). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
9-24
skill:
19.77
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
80.95
baseline:
69.11
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
15
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
5Score Predictions Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos 28 — Giants 20
VerdictHit
83.33Hit · naive 97.55
83.33this call97.55a naive guess−14.22worse than naive1.67difficulty−23.75skill
Closing line (Oct 19): Broncos by 7.5, total 39.5 · this 28–20 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 8) and more points (48). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
32-33
skill:
−23.75
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
97.55
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
8
Think this is wrong?
6Score Predictions Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns 24 — Dolphins 17
VerdictClose
57.14Close · naive 50
57.14this call50a naive guess7.14better than naive1.67difficulty+11.93skill
Closing line (Oct 19): Browns by 2.5, total 34.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Browns win (by 7) and more points (41). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
6-31
skill:
11.93
they picked:
CLE
season:
2025
accuracy:
57.14
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
25
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
7Game Outcome Picks San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to beat Atlanta
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.67difficulty0skill
Closing line (Oct 19): 49ers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Falcons 49%, 49ers 51%.
How this was scored
won:
SF
score:
10-20
skill:
0
they picked:
SF
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
12
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
60.9naive 59.2