Willie ColonFeb 6, 2026

Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · all settled

61.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

5.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 3Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Willie Colon said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm going with Sam Darnold, DP.

Willie Colon, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: First Things First (podcast)
The episode: Super Bowl LX preview, Matthew Stafford wins MVP, 2026 HOF Class, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidFeb 6
GradedAug 14–Oct 9

1Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP“I can see him getting MVP in this game. ... I'm going with Sam Darnold, DP.”
2Seattle Seahawks 24 — Patriots 14“I think I'm I think I'm going twenty four fourteen.”
3Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl“I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks. I just feel like they're the most complete team”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP¹	Award Picks	Kenneth Walker III won	0	0	0
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Patriots 14²	Score Predictions	—	85.71	16.73	+68.98
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl³	Super Bowl Picks	SEA won it	100	0	+100
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled			61.9	5.6

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 61.9 out of 100, against 5.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Sam Darnold Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP
What happenedKenneth Walker III woncalled Sam Darnold
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
super_bowl_mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Jalen Hurts, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Sam Darnold
season:
2025
who won:
Kenneth Walker III
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Patriots 14
VerdictHit
85.71Hit · naive 16.73
85.71this call16.73a naive guess68.98better than naive1difficulty+68.98skill
Closing line (Feb 8): Seahawks by 4.5, total 45.5 · this 24–14 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 10) and fewer points (38).
How this was scored
score:
29-13
skill:
68.98
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
16.73
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
16
weeks left when called:
0
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
3Super Bowl Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked SEA
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
61.9naive 5.6