Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 3, 2025
Eisen predicts three quarterbacks go in the first round, with Jaxson Dart taken late in round one, and says three running backs in the first would be a surprise; they also insist Shedeur Sanders will not fall out of the top 10 and picks the Rams to win the NFC West while keeping the Eagles as the NFC favorite over Washington.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think three quarterbacks go in the first round.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- OverReaction Monday: NFL Combine Recap
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 3, 2025
- GradedAug 13–Sep 18, 2026
- 1Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings“Not coming back to the Vikings, and he's gonna get $50,000,000 a year in his new deal... I will just say this is an overreaction.”
- 2Los Angeles Rams to win the division“the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025. I totally agree. I absolutely totally agree.”
- 3Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)“So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.”
- 4Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board“I think three quarterbacks go in the first round. So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings1 | Trade and Signing Calls | Ended up with SEA | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Los Angeles Rams to win the division2 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 144 | 0.3 | 50 | — | |
| Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board4 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 31.26 | +68.74 | |
| 4 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 50.1 | 20.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 mock draft pick, 1 position order call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 50.1 out of 100, against 20.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Trade and Signing CallsSam DarnoldMinnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings
What happenedEnded up with SEA100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- MIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- SEA
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Division WinnersLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
3Mock Draft PicksShedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 1440.3Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.3
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.3
- predicted pick:
- not falling out of the top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
4Position Order CallsJaxson Dart
Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 31.26100this call−31.26a naive guess=68.74better than naive×1difficulty=+68.74skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 31.26
- skill:
- 68.74
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 31.26
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1–32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
50.1naive 20.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Justin Penik · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Jones · Hit 100
Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Cynthia Frelund · Division Winners · Houston Texans · Miss 0
Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; they also see the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.