Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 19, 2025

Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; they also see the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled

30Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#45Cynthia Frelund’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Cynthia Frelund said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.

Cynthia Frelund, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: Week 16 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidDec 19, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
2Houston Texans to win the division“The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the ASC South, which I AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.”
3Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl“I think that the configuration of the super Bowl team for the AFC, it's going to be all defense... it's either the Broncos or the Texans.”
4Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cowboys“My model has a straight up win for the Chargers.”
5Detroit Lions to beat Steelers“I have them only winning by six... Fifty seven percent”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Skill
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0
Houston Texans to win the division²	Division Winners	—	0	0
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl³	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	50	+58.5
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cowboys⁴	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	+117
Detroit Lions to beat Steelers⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	0
5 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled			30

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 30 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Houston Texans
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked HOU
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Division Winners Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win the division
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
3Conference Champions Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DEN
50Close · naive 0
50this call0a naive guess50better than naive1.17difficulty+58.5skill
How this was scored
skill:
58.5
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
yes
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Cowboys
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.17difficulty+117skill
Closing line (Dec 21): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Chargers 47%, Cowboys 53%.
How this was scored
won:
LAC
score:
34-17
skill:
117
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Steelers
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
Closing line (Dec 21): Lions by 7.5 · favorite pick, Lions 78%.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
29-24
skill:
0
they picked:
DET
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
30naive 0

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.
Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.
Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Close 55
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.

More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Chris Brockman · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.
Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.