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2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida

Senate · special election · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Ashley Moody92¢
  • Angie Nixon9¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 4 polls in 21 days · through September 27, 2026

  • Ashley Moody48.4%
  • Angie Nixon43.4%
  • Neil Gillespie2.4%

Ashley Moody by 5.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-09-25 – 2026-09-271063 LVAshley Moody 48% · Angie Nixon 47%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-20 – 2026-09-21600 LVAshley Moody 49.3% · Angie Nixon 41.8% · Neil Gillespie 2.4%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research2026-09-14 – 2026-09-21830 LVAshley Moody 51% · Angie Nixon 40%
St. Pete Polls · for Florida Politics2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17913 LVAshley Moody 45.2% · Angie Nixon 44.8%
Quantus Insights2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10733 LVAshley Moody 50.1% · Angie Nixon 42.7%
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-09-07 – 2026-09-091107 LVAshley Moody 47% · Angie Nixon 47%
University of North Florida2026-07-08 – 2026-07-17848 LVAshley Moody 50% · Alexander Vindman 40%
University of North Florida2026-07-08 – 2026-07-17848 LVAshley Moody 50% · Angie Nixon 42%
Change Research (DEM) · for Freedom Project USA2026-06-11 – 2026-06-141273 RVAshley Moody 46% · Alexander Vindman 43%
Change Research (DEM) · for Freedom Project USA2026-06-11 – 2026-06-141015 LVAshley Moody 46% · Alexander Vindman 46%
McLaughlin & Associates (REP) · for Associated Industries of Florida2026-06-03 – 2026-06-07800 LVAshley Moody 47% · Alexander Vindman 40%
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-05-13 – 2026-05-162070 LVAlexander Vindman 47% · Ashley Moody 45%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Ashley Moody 1· 1 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (2)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.