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J.D. DurkinOct 6, 2026

Discussing how AI politics may shift after the election, they assume Democrats will take control of the House in November.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+104Skillafter difficulty

What J.D. Durkin said

It'll be really interesting to me to see how the dust settles after November, presuming Democrats win the house.
J.D. Durkin’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)
The episode
Can You Trust Senate Midterm Polling? A Tale of Two Economies (with J.D. Durkin)
The original
Hear the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 6
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “It'll be really interesting to me to see how the dust settles after November, presuming Democrats win the house.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.04difficulty+104skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    104
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    27
    difficulty:
    1.04
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.