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Zachary PerelesAug 24, 2026

A CBS Sports column argues Cleveland erred in naming Deshaun Watson the Week 1 starter over Shedeur Sanders, and predicts that with Watson starting the Browns will lose, while Sanders will see the field at some point this season due to injury or ineffectiveness ahead of them.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Jaguars 34–10What happenedBrowns at Jaguars
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Zachary Pereles said

Watson will play. Sanders will play. The Browns will lose.
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Browns fans, keep booing: Todd Monken picking Deshaun Watson over Shedeur Sanders is wrong, even if it's right
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidAug 24
  2. PlayedSep 13
  3. GradedSep 15

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Browns

    What happenedJaguars 34–10Browns at Jaguars
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    10-34
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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