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Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 14, 2026

Prisco is the lone expert cited picking Kansas City, 20-17 over Denver.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

57Close · out of 100
Chiefs 31–10What happenedcalled Chiefs by 3 · won by 21
51.93A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
57.14This callout of 100
#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

Prisco's pick: Chiefs 20-17 over Broncos
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 1 winners and losers, plus grades for every team and Broncos-Chiefs predictions for Monday night
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 14
  2. PlayedSep 14
  3. GradedSep 16

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 57.1 out of 100, against 51.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs 20 — Broncos 17

    What happenedChiefs 31–10called Chiefs by 3 · won by 21
    57.14Close · naive 51.93
    57.14this call51.93a naive guess5.21better than naive2difficulty+10.42skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 3) and fewer points (37).

    How this was scored
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    10.42
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    57.14
    baseline:
    51.93
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    0.81
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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