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Jason McIntyre#46 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 15, 2026

McIntyre gave their divisional-round picks: Buffalo over Denver in a low-scoring 17-16 game, Seattle over San Francisco in a close one, Houston to beat New England outright, and the Rams to win in Chicago behind Matthew Stafford. They also picked Indiana to win the national title over Miami, said Matthew Stafford will win MVP, and joked that Fernando Mendoza will end up with the Raiders.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 4calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting
61.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
49.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 5Settled1 still waiting
#46Jason McIntyre’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jason McIntyre said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'll go low seventeen sixteen Buffalo or thereabouts.
Jason McIntyre, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 3 - NFL playoff predictions, Tomorrow's headlines today, Greg Cosell
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 15
  2. GradedAug 7
  1. 1Matthew Stafford to win MVP“They're going up against an MVP candidate. I don't think Mayo win it. I think Stafford will.”
  2. 2Houston Texans to beat Patriots“I like the Texas to win this out right.”
  3. 3Buffalo Bills 17 — Denver 16“I don't think they can stop him. I'll go low seventeen sixteen Buffalo or thereabouts.”
  4. 4Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears“old man Matthew Stafford delivers... I don't see the Rams blowing this.”
  5. 5Fernando Mendoza to move to Las Vegas Raiders“congrats to Mendoza, who goes to the Raiders then where he's not winning anything for a decade”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Matthew Stafford to win MVP1Award PicksMatthew Stafford won1000+100
Houston Texans to beat Patriots2Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
Buffalo Bills 17 — Denver 163Score Predictions—45.2497.69−52.45
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears4Game Outcome Picks—1000+100
Fernando Mendoza to move to Las Vegas Raiders5Trade and Signing Calls————
5 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting61.349.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 1 award pick, 1 score prediction and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 61.3 out of 100, against 49.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams

    Matthew Stafford to win MVP

    What happenedMatthew Stafford won
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Patriots

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 38%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills 17 — Denver 16

    VerdictClose
    45.24Close · naive 97.69
    45.24this call97.69a naive guess−52.45worse than naive1difficulty−52.45skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5, total 45.5 · this 17–16 calls a Bills win (by 1; the line gave the Bills 48%) and fewer points (33).

    How this was scored
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −52.45
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    97.69
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 2 in 3 (64%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Trade and Signing CallsFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    Fernando Mendoza to move to Las Vegas Raiders

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    61.3naive 49.4

Who this take is about

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