Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 12, 2025

Rosenthal, running an "eyeball test" model, sides with underdogs: they'd take Jacksonville straight up over Cincinnati, has New England beating Miami, and picks their newly adopted Jets to beat the Bills outright, while still standing by their preseason Lions Super Bowl pick and Jets as a seventh seed. They also agreed with Cynthia's Broncos pick over the Colts.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 4 misses · all settled
20Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
40A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars.
Gregg Rosenthal, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidSep 12, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5–17, 2026
  1. 1New York Jets to beat Bills“Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two.”
  2. 2New England Patriots to beat Miami“I mean I have New England winning.”
  3. 3New York Jets to make the playoffs“I had them going to the playoffs as my seventh seed.”
  4. 4Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you don't have to do that here... I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.”
  5. 5Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl“It was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
New York Jets to beat Bills1Game Outcome Picks—000
New England Patriots to beat Miami2Game Outcome Picks—1000+194
New York Jets to make the playoffs3Playoff PicksMissed the playoffs0100−194
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals4Game Outcome Picks—0100−194
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl5Super Bowl PicksSEA won it000
5 calls · 1 hit · 4 misses · all settled2040

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 playoff pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksNew York Jets

    New York Jets to beat Bills

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Bills by 6 · underdog pick, Jets 29%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    30-10
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NYJ
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NYJ
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat Miami

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Dolphins by 1.5 · a toss-up, Patriots 47%, Dolphins 53%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    33-27
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    MIA
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Playoff PicksNew York Jets

    New York Jets to make the playoffs

    What happenedMissed the playoffs
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NYJ
    skill:
    −194
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive guess said:
    no
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Bengals by 3.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 37%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CIN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Super Bowl PicksDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl

    What happenedSEA won itpicked DET
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    20naive 40

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these