Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 12, 2025
Rosenthal, running an "eyeball test" model, sides with underdogs: he'd take Jacksonville straight up over Cincinnati, has New England beating Miami, and picks his newly adopted Jets to beat the Bills outright, while still standing by his preseason Lions Super Bowl pick and Jets as a seventh seed. He also agreed with Cynthia's Broncos pick over the Colts.
“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 playoff pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 12, 2025
New York Jets to beat Bills
“Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 30-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsSep 12, 2025
New England Patriots to beat Miami
“I mean I have New England winning.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 33-27
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosSep 12, 2025
Denver Broncos to beat Colts
“I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all. Likes the cult story... But ultimately I agreed with every single point that you made”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 28-29
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksNew York JetsSep 12, 2025
New York Jets to make the playoffs
“I had them going to the playoffs as my seventh seed.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- skill:
- -194
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 12, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bengals
“I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you don't have to do that here... I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Super Bowl PicksDetroit LionsSep 12, 2025
Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl
“It was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.