CBS NewsOct 25, 2026
The network's Battleground Tracker forecast has Democrats winning control of the House with 229 seats — a majority of roughly 11 seats — while the Senate is rated a toss-up.
Published in writing · Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)Read the original
What CBS News said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromour CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229 seats
- Where it was published
- Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)
- The piece
- Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 25, 2026
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 25
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Control of Congress“our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229 seats”
- 2Seat Counts“Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229 seats... our CBS polling shows Democrats are on pace to have a narrow majority of about 11 seats”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats are on…”1 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +101 | |
| “Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229…”2 | Seat Counts | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 waiting | 100 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229 seats”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.01difficulty=+101skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
- chamber:
- 2026-house
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
“Democrats are on pace to take control of the House with 229 seats... our CBS polling shows Democrats are on pace to have a narrow majority of about 11 seats”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Erick-Woods Erickson · Control of Congress · Hit 100
Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats.