Peter Schrager#19 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 11, 2025
Reviewing their preseason picks, Schrager refused to back off: they still have the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and doubled down on the Packers, who entered the playoffs as the NFC's seventh seed, representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. They also ranked the top 10 rookie performances of 2024 and named Jared Verse their Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Peter Schrager said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick... I got the Chiefs winning at all this year.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Saturday Special: Recalling Preseason picks, Fab 10 Rookies, and Wild Card Weekend!
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- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 11, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl“The NFC will be represented by... Jordan Love, Matt Lafleur and the Green Bay Packers... I think they go on the wild ride right now. And I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl“I am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning at all this year. We'll see if that happens.”
- 3Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“that award is going to go to Los Angeles this year with number seven on the list, and that's Jared First... Jared Vers upfront was one of the reasons he is my defensive Rookie of the Year. We'll see how that plays out at NFL Honors.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl2 | Super Bowl Picks | PHI won it | 50 | 50 | 0 | |
| Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year3 | Award Picks | Jared Verse won | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked GB0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −100
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Super Bowl PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI won itpicked KC50Close · naive 5050this call−50a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Award PicksJared VerseLos Angeles Rams
Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedJared Verse won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Will Anderson Jr., who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Jared Verse
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Jared Verse
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.