Peter Schrager· Jan 11, 2025
Reviewing his preseason picks, Schrager refused to back off: he still has the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and doubled down on the Packers, who entered the playoffs as the NFC's seventh seed, representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. He also ranked the top 10 rookie performances of 2024 and named Jared Verse his Defensive Rookie of the Year.
“I am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick... I got the Chiefs winning at all this year.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsGreen Bay PackersJan 11, 2025
Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
“The NFC will be represented by... Jordan Love, Matt Lafleur and the Green Bay Packers... I think they go on the wild ride right now. And I'm gonna double down. Packers to the super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 11, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“I am not backing away from my Super Bowl pick is usually pretty good. I got the Chiefs winning at all this year. We'll see if that happens.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksJared VerseLos Angeles RamsJan 11, 2025
Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“that award is going to go to Los Angeles this year with number seven on the list, and that's Jared First... Jared Vers upfront was one of the reasons he is my defensive Rookie of the Year. We'll see how that plays out at NFL Honors.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Will Anderson Jr., who won it the year before
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Jared Verse
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Jared Verse
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.