Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell· Jan 23, 2026
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.
“Second half, they're gonna run away with it.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 conference champion and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsNew England PatriotsJan 23, 2026
New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl
“Let's get Drake May running, and let's go to the Super Bowl, baby.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 23, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Broncos
“Broncos, I would expect kind of a early, kind of feel each other out. First half's gonna be tough. Second half, they're gonna run away with it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
- Mark WahlbergGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Wahlberg went game-by-game through the Patriots' schedule and predicted a 14-3 season, with losses only at Buffalo, to the Lions in Germany, and at Kansas City.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Christian GonzalezHit · 100Hurwitz says several Patriots starting jobs and roster spots are already settled — Drake Maye at QB with Jared Wilson at center, A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry as pass-catchers, and Christian Gonzalez, Milton Williams and Kevin Byard locked into roster spots. Among camp standouts, he pegs undrafted rookie Cameron Dorner as roughly the eighth receiver on a roster likely keeping seven, and says Channing Canada is a strong practice squad candidate if he doesn't make the 53.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.