Chris Brockman· Nov 3, 2025
Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.
“I think they're the best team in the NFC, and they're gonna be the one seed.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 72 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldSeattle SeahawksNov 3, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to take the top seed
“I think they're the best team in the NFC, and they're gonna be the one seed.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- bye
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsNov 3, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“and they could steal this division”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 156
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- yes
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsNov 3, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 11 wins
“I think they're gonna get to 11 wins, Jacksonville”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 0+93.6 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 93.6
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksMinnesota VikingsNov 3, 2025
Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
“He's back, JJ McCarthy. Yeah. He's gonna take the Vikings to the playoffs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles RamsNov 3, 2025
Matthew Stafford to win MVP finalist
“Matthew Stafford Rich. He is absolutely balling and he's gonna be an MVP finalist.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 156
- player:
- Matthew Stafford
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Cynthia FrelundDivision Winners · Houston TexansMiss · 0Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.