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Gavin CarlsonOct 8, 2026

Previewing the Monday night meeting in Los Angeles, they picked the Rams to beat the Bills 27-24, saying the game would come down to whoever has the ball last.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Rams (podcast)Hear the original

50Close · out of 100

Bills 37–34What happenedcalled Rams by 3 · lost by 3

43.52A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

50This callout of 100

+11.53Skillafter difficulty

What Gavin Carlson said

But give me 27, 24 Rams.

Our reading: Los Angeles Rams 27 — Bills 24

Where it was said: Locked On Rams (podcast)
The episode: Preview of Bills vs. Rams Monday Night Football: key matchups, injuries, and predictions from Locked On Bills and Locked On Rams crossover podcast.
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 8
PlayedOct 12
GradedOct 13

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 50 out of 100, against 43.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams 27 — Bills 24
What happenedBills 37–34called Rams by 3 · lost by 3
50Close · naive 43.52
50this call43.52a naive guess6.48better than naive1.78difficulty+11.53skill
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 27–24 calls a closer game (Rams by 3) and fewer points (51).
How this was scored
score:
37-34
skill:
11.53
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
43.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.28
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Bills at RamsBills 37Rams 3441 calls →

Who this take is about

Los Angeles Rams

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
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More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.
Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.
John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.

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