Justin Robert Young· Nov 1, 2024

Young said he was leaning toward the Republican side of the ledger, tending to believe Trump wins, and did not expect the Texas and Florida races to flip to Democrats.

“I'm leaning on the rep... I'm leaning on the Republican side of the ledger.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I tend to believe that Trump wins ... I'm leaning on the Republican side of the ledger.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I don't see Texas and and and, and Florida flipping. I just don't.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I don't see Texas and and and, and Florida flipping. I just don't.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.