Doug Schoen· Oct 22, 2024
Schoen said he believes Trump is ahead and more likely than not to win the presidency, describing him as a narrow but clear favorite.
“I think Donald Trump's ahead. I think he's more likely than not to win.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“But if you ask me to say, who do I think's ahead now? I think Donald Trump's ahead. I think he's more likely than not to win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- more likely than not to win
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“you have a tough time reaching any conclusion other than, Donald Trump is a narrow but clear favorite to win the election.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- a narrow but clear favorite to win the election
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.