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Jake Arthur· Sep 18, 2026

Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.

“But I'm gonna say it's, like, twenty seven twenty three Chiefs.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast) · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 97.6 out of 100, against 94.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Kansas City Chiefs 27 — Colts 23

    “But I'm gonna say it's, like, twenty seven twenty three Chiefs. I think it'll be relatively close... I see a close loss for the Colts.”

    Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 94.94+5.2 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    5.2
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    94.94
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    4

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