Tony DungyJan 6, 2026
Ranked the remaining AFC teams with Houston first and the Chargers second, picked Houston to beat Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, and said they are voting for Drake Maye as MVP.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Tony Dungy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think the winner of this game, I really think it's going to be Houston.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Tuesday Hour 1: Ranking AFC Playoff Teams, Tony Dungy joins! Angry Runs
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 6
- GradedAug 5
- 1Drake Maye to win MVP“I'm going to vote for Drake May as the MVP.”
- 2Houston Texans to beat Pittsburgh“I think the winner of this game, I really think it's going to be Houston.”
- 3Power Rankings“I'm gonna go Pittsburgh at number six... I'm going to go Jacksonville number five... Number four, I'm going to go New England... Number three... I'm going to go Buffalo... [LAC and Houston] Yep, and that's how I'm going”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye to win MVP1 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Houston Texans to beat Pittsburgh2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| “I'm gonna go Pittsburgh at number six... I'm going to go…”3 | Power Rankings | — | 48.57 | 20 | +28.57 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 49.5 | 6.7 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 49.5 out of 100, against 6.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksDrake MayeNew England Patriots
Drake Maye to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Drake Maye0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Pittsburgh
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillClosing line (Jan 12): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 30-6
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“I'm gonna go Pittsburgh at number six... I'm going to go Jacksonville number five... Number four, I'm going to go New England... Number three... I'm going to go Buffalo... [LAC and Houston] Yep, and that's how I'm going”
VerdictClose48.57Close · naive 2048.57this call−20a naive guess=28.57better than naive×1difficulty=+28.57skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 28.57
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 48.57
- baseline:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
49.5naive 6.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.Pat Fitzmaurice · Score Predictions · New England Patriots · Miss 14
Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said they would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11.Kevin Wildes · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wildes took Minnesota over Buffalo, predicted a comfortable roughly 10-point New England win over Green Bay, and switched their Super Bowl matchup to Jaguars–Bears.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.