Mike FanelliAug 22, 2026
Fanelli names six players as overpriced busts to avoid in 2026 redraft fantasy leagues based on RTSports ADP: Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving, Justin Jefferson, Luther Burden III and Harold Fannin Jr. They suggest alternatives such as Justin Herbert, Tyler Warren and Sam LaPorta.
Published in writing · FantasyProsRead the original
What Mike Fanelli said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromLet’s look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on RTSports ADP for redraft leagues .
- Where it was published
- FantasyPros
- The piece
- 6 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on RTSports (2026)
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- 1Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.82 | WR5)“fantasy players want to avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-five wide receiver and a one-two turn pick.”
- 2Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 40.53 | RB21)“Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 40.53 | RB21 ... The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a significant contract in free agency, calling the veteran a co-starter during training camp, showing their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.”
- 3Jalen Hurts to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 77.19 | QB6)“Jalen Hurts (PHI) – ADP 77.19 | QB6 ... Fantasy players can draft Justin Herbert nearly two rounds later and get similar upside out of the quarterback position.”
- 4Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 65.33 | TE5)“Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) – ADP 65.33 | TE5 ... Fannin will have massive target competition in 2026 after the Browns drafted KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.”
- 5Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 5.58 | RB3)“Christian McCaffrey (SF) – ADP 5.58 | RB3 ... the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history.”
- 6Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 45.81 | WR21)“Luther Burden III (CHI)– ADP 45.81 | WR21 The hype around Burden has gotten out of control.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.82 | WR5)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 40.53 | RB21)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jalen Hurts to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 77.19 | QB6)3 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 65.33 | TE5)4 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 5.58 | RB3)5 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 45.81 | WR21)6 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 6 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
6 checkable claims — 6 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsJustin JeffersonMinnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12.82 | WR5)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Fantasy Bust CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 40.53 | RB21)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Fantasy Bust CallsJalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 77.19 | QB6)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Fantasy Bust CallsHarold Fannin Jr.Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 65.33 | TE5)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Fantasy Bust CallsChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 5.58 | RB3)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Fantasy Bust CallsLuther Burden IIIChicago Bears
Luther Burden III to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 45.81 | WR21)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.