Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 8, 2025
Nick Wright gave their early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
Said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
I like the Raiders over six and a half.
- Where it was said
- What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)
- The episode
- What's Wright - Predicting NFL win totals, NBA Playoffs field + Florida-Houston reaction
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidApr 8, 2025
- GradedAug 7–Oct 9, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Win Totals | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Mock Draft Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
How each call scored
10 checkable claims — 9 season win totals and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 43 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
Season Win Totals3 hits · 2 close calls · 4 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“I am with the Jacksonville Jaguars over seven and a half.”
13called over 7.5100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 200
- what happened:
- 13
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 8 to 17
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- under
- they said:
- over 7.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 7 wins
“I love the over for the Las Vegas Raiders... I like the Raiders over six and a half.”
3called over 6.50Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- −200
- what happened:
- 3
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 7 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- under
- they said:
- over 6.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
“So yeah, I'm not the Chiefs stats an over... Chiefs over eleven and a half”
6called over 11.50Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 12 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 11.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Denver Broncos to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think both those teams are gonna be hovering around at the end of the year eight nine to ten wins”
14called 9–10 wins20Miss20 − 5 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 5
- they said:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 9–10 wins
“I think both those teams are gonna be hovering around at the end of the year eight nine to ten wins”
11called 9–10 wins80Hit80 − 75 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- naive:
- 9.75
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Miami Dolphins to finish with 8–9 wins
“I think the Dolphins will win eight or nine games. That is perfect.”
7called 8–9 wins80Hit80 − 75 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- MIA
- naive:
- 8.25
- skill:
- 10
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 8–9 wins (8–9 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Houston Texans to finish with 9–10 wins
“So it feels like a nine or ten win team. Will stay away from it.”
12called 9–10 wins60Close60 − 45 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 45
- they said:
- 9–10 wins (9–10 wins)
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
New York Jets to finish with 6 wins
“I could absolutely see Aaron Glenn getting there, that team finding its way to seven wins. I like the Jets over.”
3called 640Close40 − 25 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 25
- they said:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Baltimore Ravens to finish with 12 wins
“This is a tentative over for Baltimore... but I lean over for Baltimore.”
8called 1220Miss20 − 55 naive = −35 × 2 difficulty = −70 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- −70
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 55
- they said:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Mock Draft Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
“They are going to be able to draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think maybe Ashton Genty.”
Went 6mocked at 6100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Dallas Cowboys · Miss 0
Rosenthal expects a high-scoring Eagles-Cowboys kickoff game, guesses a scoreline around 41-27, still believes Dallas can clear its win total and reach the playoffs, likes the Giants to beat expectations with Jackson Dart taking over as starter early.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Detroit Lions · Miss 0
Rosenthal made a series of over/under win-total picks: Lions over 10.5, Colts under 7.5, Vikings over 8.5, Jets over 5.5, Cowboys over 7.5 (and over 8 in a side challenge), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5, Bears under 8.5. They also predicted the Cowboys win 10 games and make the playoffs, and the Jets go 7-10.Danny Parkins · Season Win Totals · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Filling in for Colin Cowherd, Parkins gave over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams for the 2025 season, plus specific win-total projections for several clubs.Jason McIntyre · Season Win Totals · Atlanta Falcons · Hit 100
Filling in for Colin Cowherd, McIntyre backed the Michael Penix-led Falcons to clear eight wins, citing a soft road schedule, and argued Alabama's Jalen Milroe will be selected in the first round of the NFL draft despite some analysts grading them as a Day 3 prospect.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Rosenthal predicted Armand Membu could go to the Jets at No. 7, expects Josh Simmons to be picked in the first round despite injury and character concerns, and floated Donovan Jackson going to a team like the Patriots at the top of the second round. On win totals they leaned over on the Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Chiefs.