Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 9, 2025
Rosenthal predicted Armand Membu could go to the Jets at No. 7, expects Josh Simmons to be picked in the first round despite injury and character concerns, and floated Donovan Jackson going to a team like the Patriots at the top of the second round. On win totals they leaned over on the Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Chiefs.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Gregg Rosenthal said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends.
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- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Early Win Totals Takeaways and OL Draft Preview
- The original
- Hear the original
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- SaidApr 9, 2025
- GradedAug 7–Oct 9, 2026
- 1Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins“So the Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I if you you bet the over for them every year, you'd be a rich man.”
- 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins“The Bucks are at nine and a half... I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.”
- 3New York Jets to finish with 6 wins“I think Jets over five and a half? That would be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think that get better than that.”
- 4Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins“the Lions were only at ten and a half... I think I would I would lean towards the over with the Lions”
- 5Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)“Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one of those teams at the top of the second round that needs offensive lineman.”
- 6Armand Membou to be picked at number 7“I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends”
- 7Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)“Someone's going to take a chance on him at some point, probably in the first round, maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins1 | Season Win Totals | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins2 | Season Win Totals | 8 | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| New York Jets to finish with 6 wins3 | Season Win Totals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins4 | Season Win Totals | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 24 | 67.71 | 50 | — | |
| Armand Membou to be picked at number 76 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)7 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 32 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled | 38.2 | 35.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 4 season win totals and 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 38.2 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
winsTheir call against what actually happened.
1Season Win TotalsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins
What happened6called over 11.50Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 6
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 12 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 11.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Season Win TotalsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins
What happened8called over 9.50Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −200
- what happened:
- 8
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 10 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- under
- they said:
- over 9.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Season Win TotalsNew York Jets
New York Jets to finish with 6 wins
What happened3called over 5.50Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYJ
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 3
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 6 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 5.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Season Win TotalsDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins
What happened9called over 10.50Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DET
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 9
- scored:
- hit or miss on the line
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- 11 to 17
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- over
- they said:
- over 10.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Mock Draft PicksDonovan JacksonNew England Patriots
Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 2467.71Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- top of the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
6Mock Draft PicksArmand MembouNew York Jets
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
What happenedWent 7mocked at 7100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 32100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- probably in the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
38.2naive 35.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
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More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.Damonza Byrd · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as their favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · San Francisco 49ers · Miss 0
Wright's under picks: Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Bengals under 9.5 with Cincinnati missing the playoffs and Zac Taylor fired.Danny Parkins · Season Win Totals · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Filling in for Colin Cowherd, Parkins gave over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams for the 2025 season, plus specific win-total projections for several clubs.