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Tyler Sullivan· Sep 18, 2026

Sullivan has Tampa Bay blowing out Cleveland, Green Bay winning narrowly at the Jets, and Philadelphia beating Tennessee by double digits.

“This should be a double-digit win by Philadelphia.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 68.3 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Green Bay Packers 24 — Jets 21

    “Tyler Sullivan on why he has the Jets covering against the Packers, but Green Bay pulling out the 24-21 victory.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 41.63+113.24 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    113.24
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    41.63
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    3

    Think this is wrong?

  • Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Titans 17

    “Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Eagles taking down the Titans, 27-17.”

    Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 39.25+90.15 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-20
    skill:
    90.15
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    39.25
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    10

    Think this is wrong?

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 — Browns 13

    “Tyler Sullivan on why he has the Buccaneers rolling over the Browns, 30-13.”

    Miss · 19Scored 19.05a naive guess scored 39.25-39.19 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    23-19
    skill:
    -39.19
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    39.25
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    17

    Think this is wrong?

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