Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 7, 2026

Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 5 game, including the Steelers beating the rest-disadvantaged Colts, the Jaguars routing a banged-up Eagles team in London, and the Bears winning at Lambeau.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

5 of 15calls landed5 hits · 8 close calls · 2 misses · all settled

63.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 15 calls

45.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

15Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

The Jags are too hot to fade at the moment, and face an Eagles team that feels like they are about to roll over.

Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: NFL Week 5 picks, odds: Jaguars bludgeon Eagles in London, Colts get exposed
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 7
PlayedOct 8–12
GradedOct 9–13

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting	Calls
Score Predictions	5	8	2	0
All	5	8	2	0

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 15 have settled, averaging 63.7 out of 100, against 45.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Score Predictions5 hits · 8 close calls · 2 missesShow ▸

Los Angeles Rams 28 — Bills 24
“Bills at Rams (Monday) Projected score : Rams 28, Bills 24”
Los Angeles Rams
Bills 37–34called Rams by 4 · lost by 3
47.62Close
47.62 − 43.52 naive = 4.1 × 1.78 difficulty = +7.3 skill
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 28–24 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and fewer points (52).
How this was scored
score:
37-34
skill:
7.3
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
43.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.28
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions 33 — Cardinals 30
“Lions at Cardinals Projected score : Lions 33, Cardinals 30”
Detroit Lions
Lions 45–21called Lions by 3 · won by 24
50Close
50 − 0 naive = 50 × 1.78 difficulty = +89 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 33–30 calls a closer game (Lions by 3) and more points (63).
How this was scored
score:
45-21
skill:
89
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Denver Broncos 26 — Chargers 20
“Projected score : Broncos 26, Chargers 20”
Denver Broncos
Broncos 23–17called Broncos by 6 · won by 6
100Hit
100 − 36.48 naive = 63.52 × 1.78 difficulty = +113.07 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 26–20 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 6) and more points (46).
How this was scored
score:
23-17
skill:
113.07
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
36.48
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
6
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 27 — 49ers 23
“49ers at Seahawks Projected score : Seahawks 27, 49ers 23”
Seattle Seahawks
49ers 32–29called Seahawks by 4 · lost by 3
47.62Close
47.62 − 43.62 naive = 4 × 1.78 difficulty = +7.12 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 27–23 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and more points (50).
How this was scored
score:
32-29
skill:
7.12
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
43.62
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons 24 — Ravens 20
“Ravens at Falcons Projected score : Falcons 24, Ravens 20”
Atlanta Falcons
Ravens 30–23called Falcons by 4 · lost by 7
42.86Close
42.86 − 34.1 naive = 8.76 × 1.78 difficulty = +15.59 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Falcons win (by 4) and fewer points (44).
How this was scored
score:
30-23
skill:
15.59
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
34.1
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots 24 — Raiders 21
“Projected score : Patriots 24, Raiders 21”
New England Patriots
Patriots 45–17called Patriots by 3 · won by 28
50Close
50 − 50 naive = 0 × 1.78 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 24–21 calls a closer game (Patriots by 3) and fewer points (45).
How this was scored
score:
17-45
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
28
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears 28 — Packers 20
“Projected score : Bears 28, Packers 20”
Chicago Bears
Packers 31–7called Bears by 8 · lost by 24
11.9Miss
11.9 − 50 naive = −38.1 × 1.78 difficulty = −67.81 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 28–20 calls a bigger Bears win (by 8) and more points (48).
How this was scored
score:
7-31
skill:
−67.81
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
11.9
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
8
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 23 — Saints 20
“Vikings at Saints Projected score : Vikings 23, Saints 20”
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings 23–13called Vikings by 3 · won by 10
83.33Hit
83.33 − 28.28 naive = 55.05 × 1.78 difficulty = +97.99 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 23–20 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 3) and more points (43).
How this was scored
score:
23-13
skill:
97.99
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
28.28
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Washington Commanders 26 — Giants 23
“Giants at Commanders Projected score : Commanders 26, Giants 23”
Washington Commanders
Tied 27–27Giants at Commanders
67.86Close
67.86 − 72.91 naive = −5.05 × 1.78 difficulty = −8.99 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 26–23 calls a closer game (Commanders by 3) and more points (49).
How this was scored
score:
27-27
skill:
−8.99
they picked:
WAS
season:
2026
accuracy:
67.86
baseline:
72.91
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
0
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
New York Jets 24 — Browns 20
“Browns at Jets Projected score : Jets 24, Browns 20”
New York Jets
Jets 17–12called Jets by 4 · won by 5
97.62Hit
97.62 − 90.19 naive = 7.43 × 1.78 difficulty = +13.23 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Jets win (by 4) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
12-17
skill:
13.23
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
90.19
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Dolphins 16
“Bengals at Dolphins Projected score : Bengals 27, Dolphins 16”
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals 31–24called Bengals by 11 · won by 7
90.48Hit
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 27–16 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 11) and fewer points (43).
How this was scored
score:
31-24
skill:
97.99
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
35.42
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans 27 — Titans 17
“Texans at Titans Projected score : Texans 27, Titans 17”
Houston Texans
Texans 26–3called Texans by 10 · won by 23
69.05Close
69.05 − 0 naive = 69.05 × 1.78 difficulty = +122.9 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Texans win (by 10) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
26-3
skill:
122.9
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
69.05
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
23
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 — Colts 20
“Projected score : Steelers 27, Colts 20”
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers 34–22called Steelers by 7 · won by 12
88.1Hit
88.1 − 73.52 naive = 14.58 × 1.78 difficulty = +25.94 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 7) and more points (47).
How this was scored
score:
22-34
skill:
25.94
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
73.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Eagles 17
“Projected score : Jaguars 30, Eagles 17”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 19–17called Jaguars by 13 · won by 2
73.81Close
73.81 − 96.54 naive = −22.73 × 1.78 difficulty = −40.45 skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 30–17 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 13) and more points (47).
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
−40.45
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
96.54
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.55
predicted margin:
13
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys 34 — Buccaneers 20
“Buccaneers at Cowboys (Thursday) Projected score : Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20”
Dallas Cowboys
Buccaneers 24–16called Cowboys by 14 · lost by 8
35.71Miss
35.71 − 32.2 naive = 3.51 × 1.78 difficulty = +6.26 skill
Closing line (Oct 8): Cowboys by 9.5, total 49.5 · this 34–20 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 14) and more points (54).
How this was scored
score:
24-16
skill:
6.26
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
35.71
baseline:
32.2
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.52
predicted margin:
14
Think this is wrong?