What Al Karsten said
Al Karsten (2-1): Lions 38-24
- The piece
- NFL Week 4 expert picks, score predictions: Lions at Panthers
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 4
- PlayedOct 4
- GradedOct 5
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 31 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Score PredictionsDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions 38 — Panthers 24
What happenedPanthers 32–26called Lions by 14 · lost by 630.95Miss · naive 88.130.95this call−88.1a naive guess=−57.15worse than naive×1.83difficulty=−104.57skillClosing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 38–24 calls a bigger Lions win (by 14) and more points (62).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 26-32
- skill:
- −104.57
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 30.95
- baseline:
- 88.1
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 14
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
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Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.Evan “Foxy” Fox · Score Predictions · Detroit Lions · Close 67
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Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.Richard Sherman · Score Predictions · Detroit Lions · Hit 81
Sherman ranked the 49ers first in their Week 9 top five ahead of Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville and Denver, picked every Week 9 game with scores, and gave midseason award picks headlined by Brock Purdy for MVP and Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.