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Jared Dubin· Oct 12, 2026

Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Bills 28-24 on Monday night.

“Jared Dubin's pick: Rams 28-24 over Bills”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 43.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Los Angeles Rams 28 — Bills 24

    “Jared Dubin's pick: Rams 28-24 over Bills”

    Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 43.52+7.3 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    37-34
    skill:
    7.3
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    43.52
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.28
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 28–24 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and fewer points (52).

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