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Ed KilgoreSep 26, 2024

Kilgore argued that Democrats are unlikely to keep their Senate majority, even if they win the presidency — implying Republicans take the chamber.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+105Skillafter difficulty

What Ed Kilgore said

For one thing, the odds of Democrats hanging onto the Senate even if they retain the White House are low.
Ed Kilgore’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was published
Tangle (newsletter)
The piece
Kamala Harris's filibuster comments.
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 26, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “For one thing, the odds of Democrats hanging onto the Senate even if they retain the White House are low”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.05difficulty+105skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    105
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    the odds of Democrats hanging onto the Senate even if they retain the White House are low
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2024-senate
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    39
    difficulty:
    1.05
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.