Glenn Beck· Nov 8, 2022

Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races.

“I think it's 53, hopefully, 54... They're gonna clearly win the house.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 31.4 out of 100, against 82.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“They're gonna clearly win the house.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I think it's 53, hopefully, 54, 49 Democrats in the senate.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
53-54
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
53 to 54
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think Masters wins. In Arizona. Right?”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think New Hampshire is gonna go, with, with us too. Bulldog is... I I think he's gonna win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think there's a Nevada. I... Yes. Nevada.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think Wisconsin goes to us.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think Herschel Walker wins.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.