Peter Schrager#19 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 4, 2025
Schrager expects the top of the draft to be quarterback-driven, with Cam Ward going first overall and Shedeur Sanders second. They also think Sam Darnold returns to Minnesota, Justin Fields starts somewhere (likely staying in Pittsburgh rather than joining the Jets), and the Eagles lose free agents like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Peter Schrager said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- The Season with Peter Schrager: Emptying the Combine Notebook with Mike Garafolo
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidMar 4, 2025
- GradedAug 5–Oct 1, 2026
- 1Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
- 2Cam Ward to be picked at number 1“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
- 3Aaron Rodgers to move to New York Giants“Rogers to the Giants. I still think it's very possible... I could see Rogers to the Giants, and I could see that happening in both sides being like, let's f the world”
- 4Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart“Justin Field is going to be an NFL starter next year.”
- 5Justin Fields to move to Pittsburgh Steelers“I think has his choice. He's going to stick in Pittsburgh over going to the Jets and another rebuilding thing.”
- 6Milton Williams to move“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
- 7Josh Sweat to move“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
- 8Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings“Sam Darnold doesn't get the franchise tag, right, I still think he goes back to Minnesota. That's my big swing here.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 21 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 144 | 0.21 | 50 | +50 | |
| Cam Ward to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | +50 | |
| Aaron Rodgers to move to New York Giants3 | Trade and Signing Calls | Ended up with PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| Justin Fields to move to Pittsburgh Steelers5 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Milton Williams to move6 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Josh Sweat to move7 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings8 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 4 waiting | 50.1 | 47.9 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 5 trade and signing calls, 2 mock draft picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 50.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksShedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2
What happenedWent 144mocked at 20.21Miss · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.21
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
3Trade and Signing CallsAaron RodgersNew York Giants
Aaron Rodgers to move to New York Giants
What happenedEnded up with PITcalled NYG0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- NYG
- was with:
- NYJ
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- PIT
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Depth Chart CallsJustin Fields
Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYJ
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Trade and Signing CallsJustin FieldsPittsburgh Steelers
Justin Fields to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Trade and Signing CallsMilton Williams
Milton Williams to move
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Trade and Signing CallsJosh Sweat
Josh Sweat to move
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Trade and Signing CallsSam DarnoldMinnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
50.1naive 47.9
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
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Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.Michael David Smith · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Smith suggests the Colts are likely to grant Josh Downs' trade request given their contract situation and their recent sell-off, and that they could also try to trade Keenan Allen.Noah Compton · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Compton expects the rebuilding Colts to keep dealing veterans before the November 10 deadline, naming Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs and Grover Stewart as the likeliest remaining trade candidates, and believes Indianapolis should and likely will move on from quarterback Daniel Jones, while Shane Steichen keeps starting Jones in the meantime.Mike Fanelli · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Fanelli suggested Keenan Allen may be dealt away from Indianapolis, with Week 9 potentially their final appearance for the Colts.