Peter Schrager· Mar 4, 2025
Schrager expects the top of the draft to be quarterback-driven, with Cam Ward going first overall and Shedeur Sanders second. He also thinks Sam Darnold returns to Minnesota, Justin Fields starts somewhere (likely staying in Pittsburgh rather than joining the Jets), and the Eagles lose free agents like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat.
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
8 checkable claims — 5 trade and signing calls, 2 mock draft picks and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 50.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 4, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 2
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Miss · 0Scored 0.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.21
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
Aaron Rodgers to move to New York Giants
“Rogers to the Giants. I still think it's very possible... I could see Rogers to the Giants, and I could see that happening in both sides being like, let's f the world”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- NYG
- was with:
- NYJ
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- PIT
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsJustin FieldsMar 4, 2025
Justin Fields to be 1st on the depth chart
“Justin Field is going to be an NFL starter next year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NYJ
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Mock Draft PicksCam WardMar 4, 2025
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“I think it's a really good chance that it goes cam Ward one Shador Sanders too”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Sam Darnold to move to Minnesota Vikings
“Sam Darnold doesn't get the franchise tag, right, I still think he goes back to Minnesota. That's my big swing here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Justin Fields to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“I think has his choice. He's going to stick in Pittsburgh over going to the Jets and another rebuilding thing.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsMilton WilliamsMar 4, 2025
Milton Williams to move
“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsJosh SweatMar 4, 2025
Josh Sweat to move
“we know the Eagles are going to have to say farewell to several top talent. I would imagine guys like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Jeshaun JonesMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece expects suspended Vikings receiver Jeshaun Jones to lose his roster battle and be cut by the Aug. 30 deadline, given Minnesota's established receiver group.
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. He expects Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- David DroegemeierTrade and Signing Calls · Mekhi BectonHit · 100Drogemeier says the Chargers cutting Mekhi Becton is a foregone conclusion, freeing nearly $9 million in cap space, and only a matter of when.
- Mina KimesTrade and Signing Calls · Mekhi BectonHit · 100Kimes projects Washington receiver Denzel Boston as a second-half-of-the-first-round pick and expects the Chargers to move on from Mekhi Becton.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100A CBS Sports piece on the Giants releasing Darius Slayton predicts he will be signed by another NFL team fairly quickly, and lists possible landing spots without committing to one.
- Noah StrackbeinTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100Strackbein says Pittsburgh views Roman Wilson as its No. 3 receiver behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr., but argues the Steelers should add released Giants veteran Darius Slayton as insurance, expecting Slayton to sign cheaply on a veteran-minimum deal, and refers to 2026 as Aaron Rodgers' final season.
- Patricia TrainaTrade and Signing Calls · Darius SlaytonHit · 100Traina writes that the Giants may make more trades before the roster cutdown and names the players she sees as the most likely candidates to be dealt: kicker Ben Sauls, one of receivers Darius Slayton or Darnell Mooney, offensive lineman Jake Kubas, and linebacker Darius Muasau.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · Will LevisHit · 100Auman predicts that Will Levis, released by Tennessee, will almost certainly be claimed on waivers by another team.