2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held
The ballot
- Josh Shapiro (Democratic, incumbent)—
- Ken Krawchuk (Libertarian)—
- Stacy Garrity (Republican)—
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026
- Josh Shapiro97¢
- Stacy Garrity3¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.
The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 22, 2026
- Josh Shapiro56.5%
- Stacy Garrity33.0%
Josh Shapiro by 23.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 12 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bravo Group · for PennLive | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22 | 624 RV | Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 28% |
| The New York Times/Siena University · for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22 | 615 LV | Josh Shapiro 58% · Stacy Garrity 38% |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-08-17 – 2026-08-23 | 501 RV | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 25% · Tony Dastra 2% |
| Bravo Group · for PennLive | 2026-08-18 – 2026-08-22 | 711 LV | Josh Shapiro 56% · Stacy Garrity 25% |
| The New York Times/Siena University · for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 2026-08-17 – 2026-08-21 | 760 RV | Josh Shapiro 54% · Stacy Garrity 37% |
| The New York Times/Siena University · for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 2026-08-17 – 2026-08-21 | 760 LV | Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 39% |
| National Public Affairs (REP) | 2026-07-26 – 2026-07-30 | 600 LV | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 43% |
| Bravo Group · for PennLive | 2026-07-17 – 2026-07-24 | 630 LV | Josh Shapiro 53% · Stacy Garrity 28% |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2026-06-08 – 2026-06-14 | 546 RV | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 28% |
| MAD Global Strategy · for Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future | 2026-06-09 – 2026-06-11 | 600 LV | Josh Shapiro 48% · Stacy Garrity 31% |
| Bravo Group · for PennLive | 2026-05-20 – 2026-05-24 | 684 LV | Josh Shapiro 53% · Stacy Garrity 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (REP) | 2026-03-18 – 2026-03-29 | 700 LV | Josh Shapiro 58% · Stacy Garrity 36% |
The field, week by week
Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Josh Shapiro1 pick
Every claim about this race (1)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
State of the Union (CNN): Josh Shapiro wins PA governorship (2026)
Race Winners · Sep 27, 2026 · 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election · the take
Pending