Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

2026 Texas gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Greg Abbott75¢
  • Gina Hinojosa26¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 4 polls in 21 days · through September 28, 2026

  • Greg Abbott50.0%
  • Gina Hinojosa46.0%
  • Pat Dixon2.0%

Greg Abbott by 4.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28881 LVGreg Abbott 52% · Gina Hinojosa 47%
Slingshot Strategies · for Texas Public Opinion Research2026-09-19 – 2026-09-221007 LVGreg Abbott 50% · Gina Hinojosa 46% · Pat Dixon 2%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-09-15 – 2026-09-191800 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 45% · Pat Dixon 2%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-09-12 – 2026-09-141000 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 46% · Pat Dixon 2%
ReconMR/Siena University2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11614 LVGina Hinojosa 49% · Greg Abbott 45% · Pat Dixon 0%
YouGov · for Univision2026-08-27 – 2026-09-041000 RVGreg Abbott 47% · Gina Hinojosa 47%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research2026-08-30 – 2026-09-01895 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 46%
Slingshot Strategies · for Texas Public Opinion Research2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241000 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 42% · Jenn Mack Raphoon 1% · Pat Dixon 1%
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov2026-08-05 – 2026-08-131218 RVGreg Abbott 45% · Gina Hinojosa 40% · Pat Dixon 3%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-09 – 2026-08-101000 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 45%
Cygnal (REP) · for Uknown Sponsor2026-07-29 – 2026-07-31800 LVGreg Abbott 49% · Gina Hinojosa 46%
Wedgewood Polls2026-07-30 – 2026-07-31800 LVGreg Abbott 50% · Gina Hinojosa 44%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Greg Abbott 2· 2 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (3)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.