Chuck Todd#2 of 21 election pundits · Oct 29, 2026

Todd previews election night and says Democrats are very likely to take the House and to gain at least three and possibly four or five Senate seats. They also treat Andy Barr as the next senator from Kentucky, expects Ossoff to win comfortably in Georgia, and calls Talarico winning the Texas Senate race while Hinojosa loses the governor's race the most likely Texas outcome.

Said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCastHear the original

4 of 5calls landed4 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting

80Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

40A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4Races calledevery call on each below

#2Chuck Todd’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Chuck Todd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

There's a high probability that Democrats win the House.

Chuck Todd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Chuck ToddCast
The episode: Chuck’s Commentary - What To Watch For On Election Night + Democrats’ Dirty Trick In Alaska
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 29
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Abbott to win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election“Tallarico winning and Hinojosa losing is the most likely scenario in Texas.”
2Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia“the fact that Ossoff doesn't look like he's even remotely getting a scare here... I could picture an Ossoff call fairly early in that sort of, you know, 730 to 830 window.”
3Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky“This is Andy Barr, the Republican nominee for Senate. He's about to become the next senator. to replace Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.”
4Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas“Tallarico winning and Hinojosa losing is the most likely scenario in Texas. It's the probability”
5Control of Congress“You know, the probability is a Democrat. You know, there's a high probability that Democrats win the House.”
6Seat Counts“the likelihood that Democrats gain at least three, if not four or five Senate seats is pretty is pretty hot”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Abbott to win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election¹	Race Winners	Gina Hinojosa won	0	0	0
Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia²	Race Winners	Jon Ossoff won	100	100	0
Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky³	Race Winners	Andy Barr won	100	100	0
Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas⁴	Race Winners	James Talarico won	100	0	+101
“You know, the probability is a Democrat. You know, there's a…”⁵	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+101
“the likelihood that Democrats gain at least three, if not four…”⁶	Seat Counts	—	—	—	—
6 calls · 4 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting			80	40

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Abbott to win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
What happenedGina Hinojosa woncalled Greg Abbott
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-governor-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
the most likely scenario
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Gina Hinojosa
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 Texas gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Greg Abbott
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
2Race Winners
Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
What happenedJon Ossoff woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ga
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Jon Ossoff
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jon Ossoff
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
3Race Winners
Andy Barr to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky
What happenedAndy Barr woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ky
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Andy Barr
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky
decided in the:
general
they said:
Andy Barr
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
4Race Winners
Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
the most likely scenario
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
James Talarico
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
James Talarico
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
5Control of Congress
“You know, the probability is a Democrat. You know, there's a high probability that Democrats win the House.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.01difficulty+101skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
101
topic:
elections
in their words:
a high probability
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-house
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
6Seat Counts
“the likelihood that Democrats gain at least three, if not four or five Senate seats is pretty is pretty hot”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
80naive 40

The races in this take

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More race winners

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