2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
Governors · November 3, 2026 · called
The ballot
The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.
- David Crowley (Democratic)Won—
- Tom Tiffany (Republican)—
David Crowley by — in the general · held by the Democratic party going in · source: wikipedia-2026
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · November 3, 2026
- David Crowley86¢
- Tom Tiffany13¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. This is the last price we read before the polls closed; prices taken after the vote are not shown. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any market or sportsbook. Not betting or financial advice.
The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through October 23, 2026
- David Crowley48.0%
- Tom Tiffany45.0%
David Crowley by 3.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 12 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wick (REP) · for League of American Workers | 2026-10-19 – 2026-10-23 | 1213 LV | David Crowley 48% · Tom Tiffany 45% |
| Z to A Research (DEM) · for Rust Belt Rising | 2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01 | 662 LV | David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 44% |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-09-16 – 2026-09-23 | 692 LV | David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 46% |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-08-12 – 2026-08-20 | 891 RV | Tom Tiffany 44% · David Crowley 44% |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-08-12 – 2026-08-20 | 738 LV | David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 44% |
| TIPP Insights (REP) · for League of American Workers | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-18 | 1119 LV | David Crowley 47% · Tom Tiffany 43% |
| TIPP Insights (REP) · for League of American Workers | 2026-08-14 – 2026-08-18 | 1434 RV | David Crowley 43% · Tom Tiffany 41% |
| Platform Communications | 2026-08-12 – 2026-08-13 | 500 LV | David Crowley 48% · Tom Tiffany 44% |
| GBAO Strategies (DEM) · for Protect Our Wisconsin | 2026-07-30 – 2026-08-03 | 800 LV | David Crowley 47% · Tom Tiffany 44% |
| RMG Research · for Napolitan Institute, Institute for Reforming Government | 2026-07-20 – 2026-07-24 | 800 RV | Francesca Hong 44% · Tom Tiffany 43% |
| RMG Research · for Napolitan Institute, Institute for Reforming Government | 2026-07-20 – 2026-07-24 | 800 RV | David Crowley 46% · Tom Tiffany 43% |
| RMG Research · for Napolitan Institute, Institute for Reforming Government | 2026-07-20 – 2026-07-24 | 800 RV | Mandela Barnes 47% · Tom Tiffany 43% |
The field, week by week
Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- David Crowley2 picks · won
Every claim about this race (2)
Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.
Chuck Todd: David Crowley wins WI governorship (2026) — “advantage Democrats”
Race Winners · Oct 14, 2026 · 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election · the take
Hit · 100Chuck Todd: David Crowley wins WI governorship (2026) — “advantage Democrats”
Race Winners · Oct 14, 2026 · 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election · the take
Hit · 100
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