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2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's district 6

House · November 3, 2026 · called

The ballot

The race is called; the shares are final once the result is certified.

Zach Dembo by — in the general · held by the Republican party going in · flipped · source: wikipedia-2026

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through October 20, 2026

  • Zach Dembo47.0%
  • Ralph Alvarado41.0%

Zach Dembo by 6.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 4 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for House Majority PAC2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20572 LVZach Dembo 47% · Ralph Alvarado 41%
Change Research (DEM) · for Kentuckians Not Corruption2026-09-29 – 2026-10-05524 LVZach Dembo 47% · Ralph Alvarado 38%
Lake Research Partners (DEM) · for House Majority PAC2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04400 LVZach Dembo 48% · Ralph Alvarado 45%
Lake Research Partners (DEM) · for House Majority PAC2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04400 LVZach Dembo 46% · Ralph Alvarado 40% · Jay Bowman 3% · Pete Lynch 1%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 1Nov 8
Ralph Alvarado 2· 2 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (2)

Newest first. A winner call is graded once the race is called and confirmed; a margin or share once the result is certified.

More 2026 races

Every 2026 race